Global mortality from outdoor fine particle pollution generated by fossil fuel combustion: Results from GEOS-Chem
Introduction
The burning of fossil fuels – especially coal, petrol, and diesel – is a major source of airborne particulate matter (PM) and ground-level ozone, which have both been implicated as key contributors to the global burden of mortality and disease (Apte et al., 2015; Dedoussi and Barrett, 2014; Lim et al., 2012). A series of studies have reported an association between exposure to air pollution and adverse health outcomes (Brook et al., 2010), even at low exposure levels (<10 μg m−3, the current World Health Organization, WHO, guideline) (Di et al., 2017). The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD, 2015) identified ambient air pollution as a leading cause of the global disease burden, especially in low-income and middle-income countries (Forouzanfar et al., 2016). Recent estimates of the global burden of disease suggest that exposure to PM2.5 (particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter < 2.5 μm) causes 4.2 million deaths and 103.1 million disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in 2015, representing 7.6% of total global deaths and 4.2% of global DALYs, with 59% of these in east and south Asia Cohen et al. (2017).
A series of newer studies conducted at lower concentrations and at higher concentrations have reported higher slopes than incorporated into the GBD using the integrated exposure–response (IER) curve (Burnett et al., 2014). These studies examined mortality due to exposure to PM2.5 at concentrations below 10 μg m−3 in North America (Di et al., 2017; Pinault et al., 2016) and above 40 μg m−3 in Asia (Katanoda et al., 2011; Tseng et al., 2015; Ueda et al., 2012; Wong et al., 2015, 2016; Yin et al., 2017). Here we have used a concentration-response curve from a recently published meta-analysis of long-term PM2.5 mortality association among adult populations which incorporates those new findings at high and low PM2.5 concentrations (Vodonos et al., 2018). We also focus our study on the health impacts of fossil-fuel derived PM2.5. In contrast, GBD reports only the health impacts of total PM2.5 and does not distinguish mortality from fossil-fuel derived PM2.5 and that from other kinds of PM2.5, including dust, wildfire smoke, and biogenically-sourced particles. We focus only on PM2.5 since recent studies have provided mixed results on the link between ozone and mortality (Atkinson et al., 2016) and there does not exist a global coherent concentration-response function (CRF) for ozone.
The developing fetus and children younger than 5 years of age are more biologically and neurologically susceptible to the many adverse effects of air pollutants from fossil-fuel combustion than adults. This differential susceptibility to air pollution is due to their rapid growth, developing brain, and immature respiratory, detoxification, immune, and thermoregulatory systems (Bateson and Schwartz, 2008; Perera, 2018). Children also breathe more air per kilogram of body weight than adults, and are therefore more exposed to pollutants in air (WHO, 2006; Xu et al., 2012). The WHO estimated that in 2012, 169,000 global deaths among children under the age of 5 were attributable to ambient air pollution (WHO, 2016). Further estimation of the burden of mortality due to PM2.5 (particularly from anthropogenic sources) among the young population would highlight the need for intervention aimed at reducing children's exposure.
Using the chemical transport model GEOS-Chem, we quantified the number of premature deaths attributable to ambient air pollution from fossil fuel combustion. Improved knowledge of this very immediate and direct consequence of fossil fuel use provides evidence of the benefits to current efforts to cut greenhouse gas emissions and invest in alternative sources of energy. It also helps quantify the magnitude of the health impacts of a category of PM2.5 that can be more readily controlled than other kinds of PM2.5 such as dust or wildfire smoke.
Section snippets
Calculation of surface PM2.5 concentrations
Previous studies examining the global burden of disease from outdoor air pollution have combined satellite and surface observations with models to obtain improved estimates of global annual mean concentrations of PM2.5 (Shaddick et al., 2018). However, the goal of such studies was to quantify the health response to PM2.5 from all sources, both natural and anthropogenic (Brauer et al., 2016, Cohen et al., 2017). Here the focus of our study is on surface ambient PM2.5 generated by fossil fuel
Impact of fossil fuel use on PM2.5
Fig. 1 shows the difference between global GEOS-Chem PM2.5 with and without fossil fuel emissions, plotted as the annual mean for 2012. Results show large contributions of 50–100 μg m−3 in PM2.5 over China and India, with smaller increments of 10–50 μg m−3 over large swaths of the United States and Europe, industrialized countries in Africa (South Africa and Nigeria), and along the North African coastline due to European pollution.
Global assessment of mortality attributable to PM2.5
Based on the annual PM2.5 simulation with and without global
Discussion
We used the chemical transport model GEOS-Chem to quantify the global mortality attributed to PM2.5 air pollution from fossil fuel combustion. Using the updated concentration response relationship between relative mortality and airborne PM2.5, we estimated global premature mortality in 2012 of 10.2 million per year from fossil fuel combustion alone. China has the highest burden of 3.91 million per year, followed by India with 2.46 million per year. These estimates carry large uncertainty (e.g.,
Conclusions
The effects of CO2-driven climate change on human health and welfare are complex, ranging from greater incidence of extreme weather events, more frequent storm-surge flooding, and increased risk of crop failure (Duffy et al., 2019). One consequence of increasing reliance on fossil fuel as an energy source that has thus far received comparatively little attention is the potential health impact of the pollutants co-emitted with the greenhouse gas CO2. Such pollutants include PM2.5 and the
Author contribution
K. Vohra and A. Vodonos carried out the health impact calculations guided by J. Schwartz. E. A. Marais and M. P. Sulprizio performed GEOS-Chem simulations. L. J. Mickley oversaw the project. All authors contributed to writing the manuscript.
Data availability
GEOS-Chem code and output are available at the GEOS-Chem website (http://acmg.seas.harvard.edu/geos_chem.html) and upon request.
Declaration of competing interest
The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.
Acknowledgments
This study was funded by the Wallace Global Fund, the Environment and Health Fund (EHF) Israel, and a University of Birmingham Global Challenges Fund PhD studentship awarded to KV. This publication was made possible by USEPA grant RD-835872. Its contents are solely the responsibility of the grantee and do not necessarily represent the official views of the USEPA. Further, USEPA does not endorse the purchase of any commercial products or services mentioned in the publication.
References (58)
- et al.
Estimates and 25-year trends of the global burden of disease attributable to ambient air pollution: an analysis of data from the Global Burden of diseases study 2015
Lancet
(2017) - et al.
Air pollution and early deaths in the United States. Part II: attribution of PM2.5 exposure to emissions species, time, location and sector
Atmos. Environ.
(2014) - et al.
Variability of outdoor fine particulate (PM2.5) concentration in the Indian Subcontinent: a remote sensing approach
Remote Sens. Environ.
(2012) - et al.
A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990-2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010
Lancet
(2012) - et al.
Clear-sky aerosol optical depth over East China estimated from visibility measurements and chemical transport modeling
Atmos. Environ.
(2014) - et al.
Anthropogenic emissions in Nigeria and implications for atmospheric ozone pollution: a view from space
Atmos. Environ.
(2014) - et al.
Global burden of acute lower respiratory infections due to respiratory syncytial virus in young children: a systematic review and meta-analysis
Lancet
(2010) - et al.
The concentration-response between long-term PM2.5 exposure and mortality; A meta-regression approach
Environ. Res.
(2018) - et al.
Addressing global mortality from ambient PM2.5
Environ. Sci. Technol.
(2015) - et al.
Long-term exposure to ambient ozone and mortality: a quantitative systematic review and meta-analysis of evidence from cohort studies
Bmj Open
(2016)
Children's response to air pollutants
J. Toxicol. Environ. Health A
Ambient air pollution exposure estimation for the global burden of disease 2013
Environ. Sci. Technol.
Particulate matter air pollution and cardiovascular disease an update to the scientific statement from the American heart association
Circulation
Global estimates of mortality associated with long-term exposure to outdoor fine particulate matter
P Natl Acad Sci USA
An integrated risk function for estimating the global burden of disease attributable to ambient fine particulate matter exposure
Environ. Health Perspect.
Government of Canada
Gridded Population of the World, Version 4 (GPWv4): Population Count Adjusted to Match 2015 Revision of UN WPP Country Totals, Revision 11
Air pollution and mortality in the medicare population
N. Engl. J. Med.
Synthesis of satellite (MODIS), aircraft (ICARTT), and surface (IMPROVE, EPA-AQS, AERONET) aerosol observations over eastern North America to improve MODIS aerosol retrievals and constrain surface aerosol concentrations and sources
J. Geophys. Res. Atmos.
Strengthened scientific support for the Endangerment Finding for atmospheric greenhouse gases
Science
Aerosol loading in the Southeastern United States: reconciling surface and satellite observations
Atmos. Chem. Phys.
Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
Lancet
Long-term ambient multipollutant exposures and mortality
Am J Resp Crit Care
Atmospheric ammonia and particulate inorganic nitrogen over the United States
Atmos. Chem. Phys.
Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation
An association between long-term exposure to ambient air pollution and mortality from lung cancer and respiratory diseases in Japan
J. Epidemiol.
Public health impacts of the severe haze in Equatorial Asia in September-October 2015: demonstration of a new framework for informing fire management strategies to reduce downwind smoke exposure
Environ. Res. Lett.
Special Report Reanalysis of the Harvard Six Cities Study and the American Cancer Society Study of Particulate Air Pollution and Mortality Part II: Sensitivity Analyses Appendix C. Flexible Modeling of the Effects of Fine Particles and Sulphate on Mortality
Improving present day and future estimates of anthropogenic sectoral emissions and the resulting air quality impacts in Africa
Faraday Discuss
Cited by (430)
Effects and mechanisms of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in inflammatory skin diseases
2024, Science of the Total EnvironmentThe key characteristics of cardiotoxicity for the pervasive pollutant phenanthrene
2024, Journal of Hazardous MaterialsRevolutionizing photovoltaic excellence: Unveiling a cutting-edge approach to assessing module enhancers for optimal area and cost efficiency
2024, Case Studies in Thermal Engineering
- 1
Now at: Department of Geography, University College London, London, UK.